Here we are, about 6 weeks into a pandemic induced lockdown with many states starting to “re-open” to some degree or another. When I venture out and talk to other humans, you get a sense people are in a haze, waiting for something, anything, to wake them from this bad dream. Most are optimistic and put on a brave face. “We are fine” and “we are well equipped to get through this” are the phrases I most often hear. Really, is everyone “just fine”? I think not. To even the casual observer, one can sense that something bigger is afoot, meaning this is not about a pandemic. I had referenced this thought previously by saying the novel coronavirus was a just a trigger or catalyst to bring about great change. Many are not sure how to articulate this, bounded by political dogmas or general beliefs that can never be violated. If this is in conflict with my belief system, it CAN’T be true. Well yes, it can.
One of the striking and downright terrifying things that is accelerating due to the pandemic is online censorship. Matt Taibbi wrote a nice piece recently on this subject, and many others are chiming in as well. Basically, big tech firms have taken it upon themselves to censor what they feel is “dangerous” content with respect to the pandemic or otherwise. This is occurring as the normal partisan split has occurred within the electorate as to what is happening, how it got started, and how to proceed moving forward. Anyone who thinks lockdowns should be lifted immediately are labelled red team, conservative, Trump sympathizer etc.. Anyone who is in support of lockdowns is blue team, liberal, hates Trump etc.. Would this occur in a normal, functioning democracy? What does “normal” mean? Why can’t people have a rational conversation?
This question is part and parcel as to why I believe we are headed to complete social and economic collapse. My way of understanding this is through extensive study of social and economic cycles, as well as the history of previous empires that preceded the United States. Therefore, what is the bigger picture? Simply stated, the current economic system with the United States having the world’s reserve currency has reached its breaking point. Because of this, we are on a direct collision course with China who is viewed as the ascendant power to our decline. However is that the case? Is China ascendant? Is China’s *system* preferable? Many domestic propagandists here in the US would say yes. I would say no, however would expect the pendulum to swing in that direction as a new equilibrium is found.
It is the opinion of this author that capital and money flows have dictated all of the great conflicts in the history of modern civilization. Empires are made and destroyed by the “money changers” who essentially are the gatekeepers of global commerce. To them, it doesn’t matter who is right or wins, it just matters that goods are exchanged in mass quantities and they get a cut. Therefore if we are near the end of the “American experiment” as some would call it, then the gatekeepers will need another golden goose to exploit. That golden goose may very well be China, ironically enough, with “climate change” used as a tool to redistribute wealth.
Right now people are becoming complacent again as states begin to re-open and the stock market surges to recapture some of what was lost. In reality, we are only in the 2nd inning of the “great change” and things will get worse, much worse. The media regales in stories of how housing prices have held up and even moving higher, when in fact they are just about to re-collapse. Soon, inflation will scream higher in things we need. Food inflation has already soared, with oil and the energy complex to follow. Asset prices will continue to fall, first because they have absolutely no connection to the economic fundamentals they supposedly represent, and secondly they will soon draw the ire of the taxing authorities. We continue to add debt as if it doesn’t matter, when in reality it threatens our way of life and our national security. That said, I continue to be short equites around Dow 24kish and long gold while trading around my positions on silly spikes such as today. I happened to successfully navigate the oil price collapse last month, and was actually short oil believe it or not (currently I don’t have a position in oil and will trade in and out, long or short, as the situation arises).
We are close, very close. I can smell it. So here we are, six weeks into a pandemic induced lockdown…