Initial downside targets

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It would probably help to put some targets out there for this next plunge which I project to start shortly. Currently we are trading down today about 1% on the SnP, although it is not clear to me this is the start of the next big leg down. It could be, or the market may oscillate and drift higher for another week or so. That said, for this next move, I expect a drop to SnP 3300ish (/ES futures), Dow 26k ish (YM futures), and Nasdaq 9500ish (/NQ futures). These are approximate values, and of course things could evolve, and one must be nimble. I expect markets to go much lower in the mid to long term, losing 75-90% of their value from peak to trough (SnP 400’s?). I also don’t expect a V shape recovery from this bear market.

Any number of things could trigger the next wave of selling. June CPI on 7/13, Russia gas cut off to Europe next week, China/Taiwan etc. One can only speculate. However, the main reason and underlying driver will be economic plus two additional “extraneous” trends rarely mentioned in the press. The economic drivers are straightforward, i.e., top line sales pressure from a weakened consumer who must spend more on food, energy, shelter versus other items, bottom line pressure from higher input costs due to inflation, and a higher cost of capital. Other factors are 1) government meddling in various sectors (oil, media etc.) and 2) the bifurcation of US in general where the culture wars drive folks to spend money or not spend money based on political reasons. The latter is rarely mentioned, but I believe to be a macro driver of segmented and reduced spending in many areas of the economy (i.e., go woke, go broke).