Things have gone as planned since the all-in short call around ES 4300. Many are wondering, is the decline over? In my estimation, the answer is a resounding “No!” Currently trading at approx. ES 3700 this morning based on a short-lived bounce from the BOE resuming QE to prevent a full-on Gilt implosion. Suffice to say, this is not positive for England, AND it doesn’t mean the Fed will pivot. Oil is up $2.50 a barrel as I type this. Without getting into all the details, I ADDED about 25% to my short positions during September expiry/roll to December contracts. I also have been buying the dip in 10-year treasuries (expect a flight to safety shortly), gold, silver, and oil.
My previous target for a short term (next few weeks) equity was around ES 2900, but I think we could go lower. I expect a nasty decline in the next couple weeks. Much nastier relative to the orderly decline we have had since ES 4300.