We currently find ourselves in a crisis of historic magnitude, likely the biggest in the history of our country. I am not talking about the virus itself, but rather the reaction to it and the implications to come in the upcoming months and years. Right now, as I type this, many areas around the world are in some kind of quarantine, with dramatically reduced social and economic activity. One might ask, how is this pandemic different? In 2009 and 2010, the Swine flu infected 60 Million Americans. No lockdown, however. Each year, up to 50,000 US citizens die from the flu. Currently, we are up to approximately 2200 deaths from Coronavirus.
Now, as we are near peak infection and mortality rates on a non-linear curve, many leaders are spouting worst-case scenarios as if we can extrapolate from this exact point in time (which is nonsense). Journalists are busy cobbling together an assortment of facts, pseudo-facts, and straight falsehoods to make vacuous statements about what is happening. Many are using data from China to make comparisons to drive a narrative. Since when has China been forthcoming about any data, ever? If you question the narrative, you are accused of ignoring “science”. LMAO. Soon the breadcrumbs will lead to a more accurate picture of what is happening there, with the official numbers being vastly understated.
Flattening the curve, the idea of social distancing and self quarantining so as to avoid our medical system being overwhelmed happens to be an old idea that has gained Avante guard status in the world of social media pseudo-intellectualism. May I ask, should we consider that the data used to hyperventilate about flattening the curve is no longer accurate due to increased capacity that has been brought online in short order? I ask this as someone who actually believes in social distancing and mostly staying home in a situation such as this. But to what degree should we shut things down, and for how long? Is a blunt force shutdown the only possible mitigation? Has anyone considered the secondary and tertiary effects which could lead to lost lives and suffering that dwarf what is happening as a result of Coronavirus?
The coronavirus is just a catalyst that will bring about massive changes in our lives. The *system* was unstable before the virus came on the scene (note my posts during the past several months). Can I predict what will happen or have all of the answers? Of course not. What will happen, will happen. No amount of posturing on social media or NYT op-eds matters. All reactions, mitigations, counter-reactions and the like are baked in the cake. The hive mind is real in this sense, with the governor being the inherent limitations of humans who are hard-wired to react in a prescribed way, over and over again.
This is where I connect to waves and cycles, not as a means of rationalizing why a particular event happened, but that it is inevitable. I don’t study waves just because of the stock market or as a means to make money, but rather as a link to better predict our behavior and interactions as a society. In other words, economics (the pseudoscience that it is), is inexorably linked to societal mood, and ultimately to mortality and well being. I can’t help to think back to my undergraduate days sitting in Quantum Mechanics class, otherwise known as Physical Chemistry or “PChem”. Some know that we can’t predict the exact location of an electron, but rather we create mathematical models to describe where they “might” be, otherwise known as probability clouds. However, do we really understand what is happening at the subatomic level? Can we explain exactly what will happen when one enters a black hole? We try to understand with our limited ability to actually test a hypothesis and observe an outcome (who has gone in a black hole and come out?). That said, I view what is happening in terms of many probability clouds colliding, with interactions and tertiary effects not visible or even comprehensible to human understanding.
Therefore I offer the following potential outcomes, increasing in probability as we dismiss each as an outlier without consideration for the interactions amongst all of the variables:
- Within 12 months, approximately 1 in 2 people will either be a) unemployed for an extended period; or b) furloughed while being paid a fraction of their previous salary; or c) forced to take a significant pay cut even if employed.
- The Dow and other equity indices will fall to unimaginable levels within 4-5 years. This will not happen in a straight line and involve many false rebounds. Estimated target = Dow 3500.
- The US will split into 2 or more countries within the next decade. The fractured state of the nation heading into this will serve as the foundation for this outcome, and I believe the differences may be great enough to allow for a split.
- The US dollar will no longer be the reserve currency of the world, being replaced by some kind of special drawing rights issued by the IMF or similar. The new currency will be digital and cash will be outlawed.
- Governments will leverage all digital currency to enforce negative interest rates while prices skyrocket.
- Expect at least one, or more likely several, bank holidays where banks are closed for days or weeks.
- Asset confiscation will become prevalent using a wealth tax as the primary tool. 401Ks may be forced to invest in Treasurys at exactly the wrong time, for the “good of the country.”
- The 2020 election will be more fiercely debated than 2016, perhaps with the outcome challenged to the Supreme Court. The propaganda from all sides will be relentless.
- Several central banks and governments will fail within 5 years which will manifest itself in a “soft” or “hard” default.
- After a period of relentless asset deflation in developed economies, massive inflation will take hold of things we *need*, like food, medical supplies, energy.
- As oil hovers around $20-$25 a barrel, a regional “proxy war” will re-ignite in the Middle East. Oil will skyrocket to above $100 a barrel in various currencies.
- The death toll from suicides and stress-related complications in the upcoming years will be at least 50-100X that of coronavirus, even taking into consideration the current baseline.
- Censorship, both online and in print, will become so pervasive that people who don’t align with the official narrative will be driven to VPNs and/or ham radios.
- There will be multiple wars waged in the next decade, most of which are unconventional (think cyberwar, emp, currency wars, etc.). A conventional war increases in probability with each passing day.
- The US and other countries will be hit by a natural disaster at the worst possible time, compounding issues I describe above. The disaster will be used by crisis opportunists to drive an agenda, with or without valid data.
OK, take a deep breath, I am not predicting the end of the world. What I list above are potential outcomes from my own “hive mind”. The good news is that this too shall pass, and foster something better in which to build upon.
Godspeed all and thanks for reading.